March Border Apprehensions: Almost Worst Case

Customs and Border Patrol reported March apprehensions at the US southwest border at 92,607.   This represents an increase of 25,723 (+38%) over February and 55,217 (+148%) over March last year.  It is 7.6x the level of March 2017.  

On the other hand, it is less than the 100,000 number which had been floated by DHS.

It is virtually impossible to make a reasonable forecast at this point, in part because the pace of apprehensions appears to be increasing at an increasing pace.  Consequently, on the graph below, our April forecast represents our best guess based on current trends, representing 1.285 million apprehensions for calendar year 2019.  

March appre.png