Apprehensions, Illegal Entries Forecast for 2019 (August)

The reduction in border apprehensions in the last few months has, predictably, affected families and unaccompanied minors the most, with apprehensions of adults -- the traditional source of illegal border crossings -- returning to near longer term averages.

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On the basis of August data, we have updated our forecast for apprehensions for fiscal and calendar year 2019. For fiscal year 2019 ending September 30, we anticipate 856,000 border apprehensions, of which 316,000 will be minors.

We further project that just under 600,000 illegal border crossers and released asylum seekers will successfully enter the US in FY 2019, representing an increase of 8.2% of the undocumented Hispanic population, if apprehended asylum seekers are included in the count. Of total successful entries, 233,000 are projected to be minors.

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