Given the track record of the Biden administration, border policy is likely to represent a pivotal issue in the 2022 election. Indeed, the administration will have to work hard to just avoid the title of 'worst ever for illegal immigration.'

What are its prospects?

We forecast two alternatives, that the balance of the year will look about average compared to the last twelve years (the Obama and Trump administrations) or that it will be as good as the best observed year since 2009. In an average year, the July to December months attain 90-93% of the June level. By contrast, the very best case would anticipate 55% of June's level for the balance of the fiscal year to September 30th; and 46% of June levels for the second half of the calendar year on average. These can be seen on the graph below.

Where would these two scenarios put the Biden administration in the historical context, that is, since 1960?

For the fiscal year ending September 30th, southwest border apprehensions at average levels are on pace as the third worst year ever. The numbers would be even more dire save that the Biden administration enjoys a tailwind from comparatively favorable apprehensions numbers during the October 2020 to January 2021 stretch of the Trump administration.

Notwithstanding, the worst years are tightly clustered. If the last three months of the fiscal year came in only 80,000 above forecast, the Biden administration would hold the absolute record for the worst fiscal year at the southwest border. The Epoch Times reports a spike in apprehensions in the Rio Grande Valley in the last week. As a result, FY 2021 numbers could well exceed expectations, and consequently the Biden administration remains in the running for 2021 as the worst fiscal year ever for southwest border apprehensions.

The lowest level the Biden administration could anticipate is 1.4 million apprehensions, which would qualify as the 7th worst fiscal year on record. Still not great, but perhaps good enough to deflect blame to external factors. Nevertheless, the odds of this best case outcome look exceedingly low given the track record of the Biden administration in the last four months.

The calendar year numbers loom larger for the administration. If the balance of the year reflects historical averages compared to the respective Junes of those years, the Biden administration will post the highest number of apprehensions at the southwest border for a calendar year ever -- by a whopping margin of 250,000! If this happens, the administration will either be pegged as maliciously leaving the border open or as the most incompetent administration ever -- by far -- with respect to border control.

The best the administration can hope for is the third worst calendar year in the historical record, a very unlikely outcome given the circumstances.

It is premature -- but only barely -- to peg calendar 2021 as 'the worst ever' for the Biden administration. If the administration wants to avoid heading into the 2022 elections with this dubious distinction, it is high time to start working on Plan B.

I would note with no particular selflessness that a market-based visa program would require 6-12 months to pull together with the various stakeholders. As a consequence, the administration could absorb the worst apprehension numbers by proposing a more sustainable system, under discussion and in process when the fiscal and calendar year numbers are tallied. If a potentially acceptable alternative is in the works at the time, the political consequences of dreadful apprehension numbers may be easier to manage.