US Customs and Border Protection reported 195,558 apprehensions at the US southwest border for the month of August. This is 5,000 fewer than the previous month, but 76% higher than the next highest August, that of August 2000 when apprehensions reached 114,000. The level remains exceptionally high.
In addition, July apprehensions were revised up by about 900, resulting in the breaching of the symbolically important 200,000 apprehensions threshold for that month. In the last twenty one years, the US has never recorded a month with apprehensions over 200,000 -- until this past July.
With only September left in the fiscal year, the Biden administration is perilously close to setting the all-time record for southwest border apprehensions in a fiscal year. Our current forecast anticipates 1.640 million apprehensions for fiscal year 2021, with the record from 2000 standing at 1.643 million. That is, a swing of only 3,000 apprehensions would set the record for the fiscal year. Put another way, if apprehensions exceed 170,000 for September, the Biden administration will hold the record for worst ever fiscal year. Apprehensions have held consistently above 170,000 / month since April. A new high is within sight.
As before, the record for the worst calendar year is all but in the bag, with our forecast for southwest border apprehensions through December standing at 1.85 million, trouncing the year 2000 at 1.643 million. It won't be close, and the previous record is likely to be smashed by 200,000 or more.
Inadmissibles -- those presenting themselves at official crossing points without appropriate documentation -- continue to climb, albeit at a slower pace. Inadmissibles for August totaled 13,329, about 400 higher than the previous month and well above long-term averages. The data suggest, as before, that migrants are finding success entering the US at official crossing points, even without proper documentation. Notwithstanding, the situation does not appear to have deteriorated materially in the last month.
All this comes at a political cost. Readers will recall my surprise that DHS Secretary Mayorkas has retained his job given the appalling numbers at the southwest border. Nevertheless, the heat is on. Mayorkas’ chief of staff, Karen Olick, announced Monday that she will be leaving for an undisclosed opportunity. The circumstances are unclear, but Politico notes that the "shakeup comes as the Biden administration tries to grapple with the flow of migrants at the southern border."
Olick may not be the last to go. Mayorkas may yet be axed if southwest border apprehensions break the fiscal year record when the numbers are reported next month.