EIA PSR Week of March 3rd: Steady

  • Crude inventories fell marginally this week

  • Nevertheless, excess crude inventories, as measured by seasonally-adjusted days of turnover, rose 6.7 mb on flat refinery runs at a time when they should be rising seasonally.

  • Product inventories are normal

  • Excess inventories in in aggregate were up 10.6 mb, a pretty hefty, but not unprecedented, gain

  • Total, gasoline, and distillate consumption (supplied) were all down this week but still look good on a 4 wma basis

    • Gasoline supplied in particular is looking healthy, generally a positive signal for the economy

  • US crude and condensate production declined by 0.1 mbpd to 12.2 mbpd, materially unchanged since last August

  • Oil prices remain range-bound.  

    • The futures curve remains in soft contango, with the market expecting normal supply/demand conditions to return in the second half of the year