November Apprehensions: High, at Expectations

Border Patrol detained 51,586 persons trying to cross the border illegally in November.  This is up 3.7% (+1,855) over October, but in line with our recent forecast and on track for 600,000 border apprehensions in 2019.  November border crossings were the highest since 2006, that is, before the Great Recession.  On the one hand, this can be interpreted as a failure of immigration policy; on the other, it signals that the Great Recession (the China Depression) is over, even if it took a decade.  This in turn implies that politics are likely to move back to center, just as the November election results suggest.

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Inadmissibles, those trying to cross at official checkpoints without papers, were up a bit but nothing too exciting.

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