Rigs and Spreads Feb 10th: Rigs up, Spreads down

  • Rigs counts recovered

  • Total oil rig counts rebounded, +10 to 609

  • Horizontal oil rig counts similarly rose, +7 to 563

  • Net all 7 of the added horizontal rigs were from the Permian.

  • The pace of horizontal rig additions rose to -0.5 / week on a 4 wma basis, with this metric in negative numbers for the last two months

  • The calculated US breakeven to add horizontal oil rigs rose to $74 / barrel WTI versus $79 on the screen at writing.  

  • Frac spreads fell, -4 to 266, still no higher than a year ago

    • As with rigs, the local peak was reached on November 25th at 300 spreads.  

    • With the loss of spreads and rise in rigs, DUC counts appear stable

  • The overall thesis is unchanged.  The shale sector looks to be in trouble.