EIA PSR Week of Feb 10th: Crude builds not as bad as the hype

  • The media reported a ‘massive’ crude inventory build this week, and indeed crude inventories rose by 16 mb --  a large, but not unprecedented, gain

  • However, excess crude inventories, as measured by days of turnover, rose only 2.2 mb because

    • Inventories tend to build seasonally in the spring, and refining, although still weak, has improved by 1.5 mbpd over the last month

    • As a result, additional crude inventory is needed to operate the system, and the net rise, after accounting for increased crude demand from refineries and seasonal factors is only a fraction of the nameplate 16 mb build

  • Product inventories are normal, with jet fuel a bit tight

  • Demand (consumption) remains weak, with total product supplied 5% below normal; gasoline 8%, distillate (diesel) 12% and kerosene (jet) 8% below normal on a 4 week moving average (wma) basis.  All of these remain stuck in recession territory, that is, pump prices remain high enough to prevent a full recovery of US refined products consumption, in aggregate running about 1 mbpd below normal

    • Having said that, weak diesel consumption is likely linked to warm weather in the northeast, where heating with fuel oil is common.  Too much should not be read into low diesel consumption

    • Further, although jet fuel consumption remains below normal on a 4 wma basis, it has actually posted above 2019 levels (‘normal’) for the last two weeks.  That’s a good sign both for recovery from the pandemic and indicative of discretionary income in consumers’ pockets

  • US oil production remains at 12.3 mbpd, up a bit over recent times, but still treading water overall

  • WTI remains in soft contango, and incentive to store analysis suggests supply continues to run ahead of demand by perhaps 1.5 mbpd globally.  If Russia’s exports do not fall, there is a $10 / barrel downside scenario in the short run.