President Trump appears to be preparing a declaration of victory and an exit from the Iran conflict — one that would leave Tehran in uncontested control of the Strait of Hormuz. This would be a strategic catastrophe of the first order.
Control of the Strait is not merely a military prize. It is an economic chokepoint through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass every day. An Iran that controls that passage without challenge controls, in effect, the production quotas of every Gulf exporter without an alternative outlet—and by extension, global oil prices. OPEC has spent fifty years trying to achieve what Iran would acquire overnight.
The math is stark. At a toll of $30–40 per barrel on 20 million barrels per day, Iran's daily revenue from the Strait alone would approach $800 million — nearly $300 billion annually, equivalent to 60 percent of Iran's entire current GDP.
Unlike OPEC, which has always struggled with cheating among its members, Iran could enforce discipline with absolute authority. Any producer that exceeded its quota would face an immediate and credible threat of closure. At a target price of $120 per barrel, Gulf exporters would still receive $80 / barrel — more than they have seen recently. They may well acquiesce. Oil prices will never return to pre-war levels under such a regime.
It gets considerably worse. Iran and Russia together would effectively control two-thirds of global oil exports. That is not merely an economic position—it is a geopolitical weapon of the first rank. Tehran could close the Strait in response to an Israeli military action, a Western sanction, or any provocation it chose to define as such. It could demand the resignation of a government. It could hold oil flows hostage to the terms of the Ukraine war. Western Europe, wholly dependent on imported oil, would find itself negotiating its energy security with Moscow and Tehran simultaneously.
Israel's position would be particularly precarious. Any strike on Iranian nuclear facilities would invite immediate Strait closure, with reopening conditional on Israeli reparations and facility reconstruction. The nuclear deterrent that Israel has relied upon for decades would be neutralized by an economic one.
And Iran would not stand still. Flush with toll revenues, Tehran would rearm at scale—acquiring the best missiles, drones, aircraft and naval vessels available outside the American arsenal. Within a year, Iran's military would be materially stronger than it was before the war.
President Trump should disabuse himself of the notion that walking away from this conflict while the Strait remains closed is a viable option. It is not. The choice is among three paths: unconditional withdrawal and the consequences described above; a full ground invasion for which there is no public appetite and no coherent plan; or a negotiated agreement. You will find our version of a workable agreement here.